Potential effects of predicted climate change on the endemic South African Dwarf Chameleons, Bradypodion

Abstract

The niche concept implies that a relationship exists between a species and its environment, while macro‐ecological theory suggests that an important attribute of a species’ environment is climate. Thus, changes in climate could affect individual species, but also communities. Here, we analysed the potential impacts of climate change on dwarf chameleons. A niche‐based modelling technique was used to predict current suitable climatic habitat for most Bradypodion species and for their phylogenetic clades. Additionally, the models were projected into the future (2080) using the IPCC climate change scenarios. All models for Bradypodion species and clades showed responses to predicted climate change, however, the degree and extent of these responses were individualistic. Most species responded with a contraction in predicated climatic suitability, but some registered an expansion or a shift. These results have important implications in understanding the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change, and for the importance of considering the effects of predicted climatic shifts on the protection of biodiversity.